Prison expanson plan "unrealistic and not prioritised"
The prison capacity crisis is the result of previous governments’ failure to ensure that the number of prison places was aligned with criminal justice policies such as sentencing and police numbers. Coupled with delays in the current expansion plans, this has led to a reactive and expensive approach that will not meet future demand or deliver value for money in the long-term, according to a new National Audit Office (NAO) report published today (4 December 2024).
Revised costs £9.4bn to £10.1 bn
The independent public spending watchdog has found, as of September 2024, HM Prison & Probation Service (HMPPS) has so far created a third (6,518) of the 20,000 additional places it committed to deliver by mid-2020s. The new date for completing the remaining places is 2031 – five years later than expected – increasing pressure on capacity and costing more. Prison capacity is projected to increase more slowly than demand and MoJ currently projects a shortage of 12,400 places by 2027, if demand increases according to its central forecast. It is relying on the current Sentencing Review to reduce demand for prison places and close the gap.
There are several reasons for delays to the Ministry of Justice’s and HMPPS’s prison expansion plans, including overestimating its ability to gain planning permission for three out of the six new prisons it had planned to build; unrealistic timelines, insufficient understanding of programme requirements and government bodies not working together to prioritise delivery.
The MoJ and HMPPS now expect the prison expansion plans to cost between £9.4 billion and £10.1 billion, which will be at least £4.2 billion over previous estimates stated in 2021. Contributing to the overspend are several significant cost increases. These include the cost of Rapid Deployment Cells (RDC), units with a lifespan of 15 years, that will deliver one thousand places at least three years later than planned; as well as inflation in the construction sector, where prices have risen by 40%.
In 2020 and 2021, the MoJ increased the scale of its prison expansion plans from 13,400 to 20,000 additional places by the mid-2020s. Despite plans to build six new prisons, refurbish existing prisons and install temporary accommodation, HMPPS has been unable to increase prison places in line with demand. This has resulted in the prison estate operating at close to or at full capacity for over two years.
Emergency measures
The NAO report notes that the Government has had to move quickly to respond to the emerging capacity crisis. HMPPS has set out operational red lines it would not cross in managing pressures to ensure the safety of staff and prisoners, this includes restricting crowding to limits it has assessed as safe. Government has largely prioritised short term ways to increase capacity, such as moving prisoners to open prisons before turning to releasing prisoners early when it had exhausted other options. At least 3,100 prisoners were released early in September and October this year.
However, the MoJ and HMPPS recognise that these actions in response to the capacity issues could impact the effective rehabilitation of prisoners, which in turn may lead to higher reoffending rates and expose the public to a greater safety risk. They are also expensive: HMPPS’s contingency measure to rent police cells overnight (Operation Safeguard) costs nearly five times the average daily cost for a prison place.
Future risk
Over the next few years there will be continued risk to the capacity in prisons, because of the poor condition of parts of the estate. A quarter (23,000) of prison places do not meet fire safety standards and HMPPS’s backlog of maintenance works has doubled to £1.8 billion from £0.9 billion in the last four years. HMPPS estimates it would cost £2.8 billon over the next five years to bring the whole estate into a ‘fair’ condition, more than double its current maintenance expenditure.
The NAO makes three key recommenations to Government, urging the MoJ, the Cabinet Office, HM Treasury, the Home Office and other government bodies towork together to:
- Achieve alignment between government objectives which impact the prison population and the capacity to support these aims
- Learn lessons from the current crisis, including the additional costs involved and impact on prisoner outcomes
- Provide greater transparency to the public and Parliament, including publishing capacity projections alongside its population projections.
Demand reduction
The Government is hoping that new demand reduction measures will address a projected shortage of 12,400 prison places by the end of 2027, should its central population projection be realised.
HMPPS’s current prison expansion plans are insufficient to meet projected future demand and is hoping that new measures such as the Sentencing Review, will reduce demand for prison places and close the gap between demand and capacity.
Most expert commentators share the view that building more prisons will simply result in a higher proportion of our citizens incarcerated. Only Scotland currently imprisons a greater percentage of its adult population than England & Wales.
Thanks to Andy Aitchison for kind permission to use the header image in this post. You can see Andy’s work here
